TPC's Post Super Bowl Thoughts

 An amazing game all around. Exciting from start to finish, an all time great performance (Brees), gutsy coaching as well as some very questionable coaching. In the end, this game created or sealed a lot of history for many involved.

1. Drew Brees enters the discussion of All Time Great QB's. His regular season statistics have always been superb (including his 65% all time completion percentage) and he now has a Super Bowl MVP and a career 103.7 QB rating with 13 TD's and 2 INT's in 6 career playoff games. He has now solidified his spot in the current Top 3, along with Manning and Brady and being the youngest of the 3, he has the most upside. He's obviously still behind the Montana, Brady and Unitas class, but he should now feel very comfortable in any argument to be in the top 20.

2. Peyton Manning, for all his regular season greatness- and he is the greatest NFL QB of All Time IN THE REGULAR SEASON, has once again showed his chink of armor in the Postseason. Consider Brees' numbers above, here is Manning's all time Postseason marks: 9-9 87.6 QB rating (as opposed to 96 for the regular season) 28TD's and 19 INT's. His QB ratings in AFC Championships and Super Bowls are in order:
35.5, 79.1, 81.8, 123.6, and last nights 88.5. Hardly the stuff of legends. With all that said, with a Colt loss last night, provided Manning was able to get them in the end zone and tie the game at 24, the arguments could still be made. However, notwithstanding Wayne's huge drop, Manning threw the game breaking INT, that Montana or Brady would have never thrown. You know how we know that? Because given the same situation with both QB's in numerous occasions, they always came through. Always. Manning doesn't. And for that reason alone, he stays in the class (albeit a great class) with Favre, Marino, etc.

3. I dont remember two huge consecutive coaching blunders than what we saw at the end of the first half last night. First, the Saints trying to claw back into a game in which they were totally outplayed early on, on 3rd and 4th down, try to run the ball when you have Drew Brees and all those weapons along side him. You see it so many times where coaches get too cute and try to do something different than what got them to that point. this was a classic case in point. The Saints are a pass first offense with an incredible Field General in Brees. let him win the game for you (which they finally did). So, of course the Colts stop them, and now with Manning who to that point was flawless, had the ball with 2 minutes left in the half, a 10-3 lead, and a chance to bury the Saints- especially considering they were getting the ball back to start the second half. So what does Caldwell do? He freakin runs it 3 times and gives the Saints back the ball. Brees drives them down the field, they get the field goal, erase the memory of the failed goal line attempts and gives Payton a reason to go for the onside kick. You have to let Manning bury the Saints there. You have to. Forgetting what happened at the end of the game, you have to assume Manning will at worst case, move the ball a little and get you better field position. Instead, they went 3 and out and gave the Saints back the ball at midfield.

4. Great job by the Saints kicker, Hartley. We all saw in the playoffs how costly missing field goals are, both in terms of not getting the 3 points and giving the other team great field position. All Hartley did was knock down 3 over 40+ yard jobs which has never been done before in the Super Bowl. On the contrary, up 17-16 the Colts try a 51 yarder, which missed and gave the Saints the ball back at the 41. Brees led them down the field for the score and the rest is history.

5. Back to Brees. Here is a guy who was one of the top QB's in the AFC for a few years, was getting run out of San Diego by their QB of the future in Rivers, on the last day before he becomes a Free Agent tears apart his throwing shoulder, possibly ending his career. Two teams show interest. The Dolphins and Saints. Miami passes, the Saints take him. Katrina happens. Brees gets down and dirty helping both physically and emotionally in the rebuilding of the city, the city embraces him, and now he delivers what may have been the best game ever played by an NFL QB (only Simms SB win could compare, but Simms had a much better running game to lean on). Great stuff for a truly good guy.

NFL 1st Quarter Report

Here we are prior to Week 6, and The People's Champ- FINALLY- has something to say on the NFL. With respect to the millions of TPC's fans, without further pomp and circumstance, here we go......
Is there anything more surprising this year than Steve Smith- no, that Steve Smith- leading the NFL in receiving yards through Week5? Look at the other names on the list, in order- Wayne, Clark, Ward, Andre Johnson, Vince Jackson, and Randy Moss. How the heck is The Other Steve Smith doing it............
Eli Manning. He has slowly (and as TPC has been saying this for years) developed into a Top 5 NFL Quarterback- at worst, to this point. Going into this season, every single major NFL expert and Fantasy Football Guru, were saying how Manning would suffer greatly without Plaxico, and the Giants would only be able to win if Jacobs and Bradshaw went nuts. You know what, Eli is doing exactly what the Great Ones do. He is making players around him better. Smith, Manningham, Dixon, et al. The Giants have had a dominating passing attack and that falls squarely on the shoulders of Eli. His 2nd ranking NFL QB rating (Peyton is first) 0f 111.7 with 10 TD's and only 2 INT's is not a fluke. And he isn't doing it with Reggie Wayne or Randy Moss.
The second biggest surprise so far has been the job Josh McDaniels has done in Denver. It was only a short while ago that Denver fans (and all NFL fans for that matter) were calling for McDaniels head for dealing Cutler- a 25 year old franchise type QB- for a sub worthy Kyle Orton and a first round pick. For crying out loud, the Giants gave up a ton more than that for Eli- prior to him ever throwing an NFL pass. Well, Orton has proven to be a very good NFL QB in the right situation, McDaniels has built a surprisingly very solid defense in Denver (fewest points allowed and second to the Giants in yards allowed) and even Brandon Marshall is happy in the Mile High City. Looks like Denver made a great deal. Chicago is happy too. Cutler has performed admirably and the Bears are off to a very good 3-1 start. Looks like a deal which benefits both squads.
I love what Rex Ryan has done in NY. For anyone living in NY, living and breathing the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS, Ryan has given the J-E-T-S a personality and an edge that they haven't seen since Parcells was the coach. I love his brashness. I love his attacking defensive style and I love that he isn't afraid to let his Franchise Rookie QB make plays. On that note, Sanchez has proven to be the QB the J-E-T-S and their fans hoped he would be and the NY football scene has a very good QB situation, seemingly for a long time to come (although it wasn't that long ago that a young Chad Pennington was talk of the town and being compared to Montana and Brady, so let's just relax a little on Sanchez for now. These are the J-E-T-S, remember).
For all the annoyance that has become of Brett Farve, he has given the Vikings a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl title. His miracle play against the 'Niners was one for the ages, a play only Farve can make (interesting side note. While watching the game with my 7 year old son, prior to the last drive I told my son the game was over. he said "Daddy, but the Vikings have Brett Farve" and I explained he is no longer THAT Brett Farve. Well, a few plays later, I told my son "you know what, your right. he is Brett Farve"). While Farve might cost them at times, he can single handedly win games like that and gives the team a huge confidence factor in that huddle. Don't forget, the Jets were 8-3 last year and had people talking Super Bowl after the win against Tennessee, prior to his injury. He has the leagues best running back, a good defense and a game changer in Percy Harvin. I think they are the second best team in the NFC behind the Giants.
As long as Peyton Manning is playing at these levels, the Colts are always a force. Yes, their defense has holes. Yes, the running game is so-so. But Peyton is the great equalizer. Watching him play is truly a privilege. The guy gets better every year and to this point, the only better QB's I have ever seen play are Montana and Brady and even that is very arguable at this point.<
I don't remember a season where such a vast amount of horrible teams existed at one point. The Oakland Raiders might be the worst sports team I have ever seen and JaMarcus Russel is clearly the worst NFL QB I have ever seen. Their coach is facing possible criminal charges- for attacking his assistant coach!- and their prized Franchise RB (McFadden) cant stay on the field.
The Rams (although now with Bulger back they should go from Putrid to just very bad), the Chiefs, the Lions (both these teams at least seem to be heading in the right direction with young talent), the Bucs, Redskins, Browns (only win against the Bills), and the Bills (lost to a team that's starting QB went 2 for 17). It's really the first time I remember such horrid teams in the National Football League, where any given Sunday and Team can win. Well, not anymore. These teams cant beat good teams. They cant even beat average teams.
I like what the Saints and Bengals have done with their defense this year, but markedly improved from prior seasons, but I'm not 100% sold on either. I like Brees a lot, but I'm not putting him anywhere near Brady-Manning status because he has gaudy numbers in a great system. Let's see some long term success before you compare him to two of the Greatest Ever.

TPC Sport Thoughts- Cassel, Cutler, Wade and more

Over the weekend we saw the Chiefs trade a 2nd round draft pick and a guaranteed $14M for Matt Cassel. As my millions and millions of loyal readers know, TPC is not a big fan of Cassel and thinks it was very apropo for the poor K.C. Chiefs to trade for the overpriced system QB. When you let Herm Edwards ruin your franchise and all time great Fantasy Football systems, why stop there?
Cassel is a very good QB in terms of mobility, but as I pointed out many times Cassel came into the perfect situation. He had a very good offensive line. Two Pro Bowl Wide Receivers (Moss and Welker) and basically the same team that broke almost every passing record in NFL history the year before. With all that he had modest success, 21 TD's and 11 INT's with a QB rating of 89.4 and a 7.2 Yards Per Attempt. Keep in mind this was also against one of the worst NFL schedules in recent years. Compare that to Tom Brady's 2007 stats and you wonder what all the fuss is about with Cassel (50TD's 8Int's a 117 passing rating a YPA of 8.3).

Now, while all this was going on, seemingly the Denver Broncos were willing to throw Jay Cutler into the mix in order to have a shot at Cassel. Why would a team with a 26 year old up and coming Pro Bowl QB stud in Cutler go after a guy like Cassel is really mind boggling. Now granted, I have said many times prior that Cutler hasn't been as good as his statistics would lead you to believe and the fact is, he makes big mistakes at bad times. However, he is also only 26 and is the most physically gifted QB in the NFL bar none. When he's on his game, no one can do what he can do, with his arm strength and mobility. Yes, he has a big mouth and yes he's prone to the big mistake, but he's freakin only 26- a puppy in NFL QB years. You can make a very good case that if the NFL put all their players in a big pool and started a draft tomorrow, Cutler would be a top 10 pick at worst and possibly top 3, while Cassel wouldn't go in the top 50. So why does Josh McDaniels and new Denver Management do this? Who knows. Maybe they are just showing their inexperience. Maybe there's more to Cutler being a pain in the toochas than we all know.

The Bucs signed former Giant Derrick Ward for a 4 year $17M deal which will not make the Buc fans happy. Yes, he's a decent back but Ward made a living facing a defensive front that just got it's teeth smashed in by Brandon "The Real Deal" Jacobs. You can put any decent back in behind Jacobs and that offensive line and he will be successful. Ward was a product of that system.

Between the Cassel-Cutler fiasco and the Ward deal, you wonder what you need to do to become a GM in the National Football League.

At least the Jets got it right by signing the right LB from Baltimore and not paying for the overpriced and overaged Ray Lewis. Bart Scott was the right man for the Jets and will help shore up that defense.

Dwayne Wade had an incredible week, scoring 24 points in the 4th Quarter to lead a 16 point comeback againts the Knicks and then fell just short in his Mano a Mano game vs. Lebron last night scoring 41 points, 7 rebounds 9 assists and 7 steals. WOW. You can take Kobe all day, for my money D-Wade is the second dog to King James.

We're about a month away from opening day and the most dangerous hitter we have ever seen (Manny Ramirez) is still waiting for a call. This after he posted a monster second half- averaging about an RBI a game and hitting .400 leading the Dodgers to the postseason. Amazing times we live in.

Farve from Retired

Brett Favre told Jet officials today he is retiring. Uh huh.......When have we heard this routine before? You think maybe you can understand a little bit better what Packer brass were going through the last three years, especially with a stud like Rodgers on the bench?

In my opinion this retirement will last until about May, when somehow another job will open up (you think Minnesota would like to have Favre?) or possibly even in training camp when some incumbent starter gets injured and the team is scrambling for a veteran QB. Either way this is good for the Jets. It allows them to move on and still save face without having to cut Favre.
It also gives them compensation when he will pull the inevitable "Unretire" and goes to another squad.
As wrong as I was about Favre coming to NY, he still gave the team instant credibility, was a key factor in turning around a 4-12 team to a 9-7 season (as well as an 8-3 team to 9-7), and still caused multiple orgasmic reactions from the talking heads at ESPN and the like, not to mention John Madden got one more year out of his Greatness.

Super Bowl Thoughts

For the first time since I was legally able to drive (30+ years), due to a stomach virus, The People's Champ watched the Super Bowl alone in the friendly confines of The People's Palace. Ironically, The People's Son attended his first Super Bowl party this year at the age of 6. And he didn't even bring me home a beer!

We've read and heard all the cliches and all the accolades. A game for the ages. The Greatest Super Bowl of all Time, etc. etc. We've had four days to digest the results, so without further ado, here are TPC's post Super Bowl Thoughts.

Big Ben finally lived up to his potential, not withstanding a pretty pedestrian game besides the opening drive and the final game winning drive. He was brilliant on the final drive of the game with the title and his legacy on the line. Remember, his first Super Bowl was the worst performance EVER by a Super Bowl Winning QB (he ended with a 22 QB rating which would make guys like Dave Brown even laugh). His final stat line was 21-30 256 yards, a TD and INT. Nothing extraordinary, except he lit it up when he needed to. I still think he is a bit overrated but he showed me something there and now will probably be replacing Brett Favre as the "most gushed over QB who isn't nearly as good as people think he is".

You think Phillip Rivers is feeling the heat about now?

Kurt Warner played a great game, and possibly the greatest stretch of 15 minutes a QB has ever played in the NFL. His 4th Quarter numbers were 15-21 257 yards and 2 TD's against what people were calling one of the great defensive teams of all time. Warner proved once again what a great QB he is, how tough he is and what a big game player he is. Again, he is the best QB not named Tom Brady we have seen in the last 10 years and a first ballot Hall of Famer.

Larry Fitzgerald is at a level now that hasn't been seen since Jerry Rice. With the game in doubt all he did was score two 4th Quarter TD's, one on one of the most exciting plays in history.

The play they called a fumble on Warner at the end of the game, when they didn't even take time to review (and if they would have it would have been ruled an incomplete pass, setting up a dramatic Hail Mary situation with Larry Fitz going up for the ball!) is one of the most curious things we have seen ending a game in a long time. HOW DO THEY NOT REVIEW THAT PLAY??????????? HOW MUCH DID THE REPLAY OFFICIAL HAVE ON THE STEELERS MONEY LINE TO NOT REVIEW IT?????????????? Just a friggin joke.

For all the heart and courage the Cardinals showed, their coaches did an awful job all game. Four things off the top of my head.

1. The Steelers Secondary was playing way back. The Cardinals played into their hands all game until the 4th Quarter when they went hurry up and forced the Steelers to adjust. Why did they wait?
2. On the same note, why did it take them until the 4th Quarter to get the Best WR in Football involved in the offense. This is a classic mistake by over matched coaches. Instead of making them adjust to you and having them stop your best guy, you use your best guy as a "decoy". It NEVER works. NEVER. The numbers by Fitz were great, imagine if they would have used him the first 3 Quarters? There's a reason Phil Jackson won so much. It's because his best players were always better than the other guys and he made the other guy stop his. That simple. Jordan and Shaq were never decoys. You wanted to beat them you had to stop their Big Guys. Only Duncan was able to do it.
   
3. On the same token, the Pittsburgh offense did ZERO from the second drive of the game to the final drive. How did the Cards accomplish this? By pressuring Ben into making bad throws. This also eliminated a horrible running game (I told you all before the Super Bowl the Steelers Offensive Line is awful and the Cards will be able to get to Ben and stop their run). So what did the Cardinals do on the final drive? They took their foot off the pedal and let Ben drive down the field unharmed. Just utter stupidity and another reason why you never play the prevent D. I don't get how experienced and seasoned NFL coaches always do this.
   
4. How do the Cardinals allow the only good and healthy receiver on the Steelers constantly beat them (Holmes, who played a brilliant game)? How do you not adjust and double this guy? How do you let an inexperienced corner get burned by Holmes all day long, without making a slight adjustment? Just horrible coaching there.

With that being said, it was an incredibly exciting 4th Quarter and a relatively boring game up to that point. Yes, Harrison gave us some fun on his play (I would have sworn the Cardinals were done after that play. Amazing how they were able to comeback from that) but other than that and some decent play by Warner and the Cards D, not much happened after the first few drives.

The Boss brought it. "Born to Run" was the single non nipple revealing moment in Super Bowl Halftime History. There's a reason he's called The Boss.

I can't wait until I get the Fantasy Football 2009 Draft emails...... Only a few months away.

Super Bets- TPC Gives out the Props

I like the Cards getting the 7.
I like the over 46 but don't love it.
I like the Cards +115 to record the games first sack.
I like the Steelers -115 to make the games shortest FG.
I also like the Steelers -110 to make the longest FG.
Take the 3rd Quarter, +285 for most points scored in the game.
Take the over 2 1/2 for how many times NBC shows Brenda Warner during the live telecast. You also get +135 for that.
Take the Cards +550 to win the game by 7-12 points.
I like the Steelers -105 for their first Offensive TD to be passing.
Also take that bet +250 that the their first score period will be a passing TD.
I like the Cards +120 to have the games first intereception (caught not thrown).
Born to Run +125 will be the Boss's closing Song at halftime.
Take Larry Fitz +460 to win Super Bowl MVP.

Feeling Super

All season long, The People's Champ has been riding the theme of what a great and underrated QB, Kurt Warner really is. TPC has also said on numerous occasions that the Steelers really aren't as good as everyone thinks. What force will win in the end? The 2nd great Cinderella story of Warner's career or the Mighty Steelers Defense getting ring #6 for their storied franchise and famous Steel Curtain D?
The Cardinals are easily the most overlooked team to ever make it to the Super Bowl. Forgetting the fact that they have won more playoff games this year (3) than their last 61 years combined. Forget that they finished 9-7 and won what was arguably the worst division in NFL history. Besides beating the 2-14 Rams and 4-12 Seahawks (with 2 of their 4 wins coming at the expense of the Rams), the Cards finished the season losing 37-29 to the Giants, 48-20 against the Eagles, 35-14 against the Vikings and 47-7 against the Pats. amazingly just two weeks later they beat a heavily favored Falcons team, then they knocked off the #2 seed in the NFC (the Panthers) and then beat the same Eagles where the got crushed just a few weeks prior. All this while finding a rejuvenated Edgerrin James (amazingly Peyton Manning in his prime couldn't get him to a Super Bowl but Warner did it in Arizona!) a physical and opportunistic defense (12 Turnovers in their 3 playoff games) and a Wide Receiver playing at a level only reached before by the great Jerry Rice (Larry Fitzgerald).
Still, they face a daunting defense in the 2009 version of the Steel Curtain, the #1 overall ranked Defense in the National Football League. They face a QB who is gunning for his 2nd Lombardi trophy in his short but very successful career in Big Ben. They face a coach (Mike Tomlin) who amazingly made the city of Pittsburgh forget about their former Coach-legend, Bill Cower.
Historically speaking, when great defenses face great offenses, the great D usually win out. Look no further than last season when the Giants beat the Patriots, arguably the greatest offense in history. Same situation in 2002 when the Pats knocked of Kurt Warner and the Greatest Show on Turf in what was one of the great upsets in Super Bowl History. The one glaring detractor from this theory in the last 10 years was when the Colts beat the Bears in Super Bowl XLI. There are a lot of similarities between that game and this one, the QB trying to make his claim amongst the greatest of all time, the All-Offense- no defense team all of a sudden discovering a very effective and opportunistic defense during a great playoff run. Granted Ben Roethelsberger is no Rex Grossman, but lets not forget that Big Ben posted the worst QB rating and performance for any Super Bowl winner, ever.
The matchups are intriguing. Warner and the great passing game against the great and physical Steelers D. Fitzgerald over the middle with Polomalu all over him. The rejuvenated Cards D vs. an average at best Steeler Offense.
In the end, I think Warner will have a little too much magic left in his wand. I think Warner is the best QB in the last 10 years not named Brady and this game will just put a stamp on that. I think Edge wants that ring. I think Fitzgerald is playing at a level so high, he can dominate the game no matter how many guys try to cover him. Oh, and if he cant, another top 5 NFL wideout (Boldin) is on the other side and will make the Steelers pay. I don't like Ben in the big game and I have had doubts about their offensive line all season. I don't think they will hold up against this Cardinal Defense, which will capitalize on those Steeler mistakes.

Final Score. Arizona 28 Pittsburgh 20.

Kurt Warner- Better than Peyton Manning

Yes, TPC has been singing the praises of Mr. Warner for all eternity, but it seems Sports Illustrated and The Cold Hard Football Facts have finally caught on.
Click here for the full article

NFL Championship Weekend Preview- TPC Style

Every year we have different "themes" heading into Championship Weekend. Last year we had the "Perfect Season Quest" and the "Does Favre have one more bit of magic left" Championship Games. 2007 brought us the classic Manning vs. Brady, "mano a mano" game and the magical Saints, trying to rejuvenate a city in the face of disaster game vs. Da Bears. This season we have two very interesting themes. In the NFC we have the quest for Greatness. McNabb trying to get into the class picture of all time great QB's with a Super Bowl win (not to mention shake the tag of "Best Player to Never win a Major" and "choker" all at the same time) and another improbable ride to Glory for Kurt Warner, who is trying to enter THE elite circle of Quarterback Greatness.
The AFC features the other side of the ball as the two best and most physical defenses try to punish other to submission while being led by two of the younger up and coming Superstar QB's. Let's go to the war room.........

NFC Championship

TPC has talked ad nausea about the greatness and under appreciation of Kurt Warner. Let's now focus about his counterpart, Donovan McNabb. For all of McNabb's regular season success, he has not fared as well in the playoffs and has traditionally had awful games in big spots. However, statistically, his regular season success compares favorably with many recent Hall of Famers and better than a few others (notably Aikman). However, the fact of the matter is, great QB's are judged by their rings as much as their stats and that's why Aikman is considered an all time great and guys like Fouts are rarely mentioned in that conversation. McNabb is the proverbial "best player to have never won a major" since Peyton got his two years ago. Much like his golfing counterpart, Sergio Garcia, a lot of the blame goes to him. Sure, he has carried the Eagles on his back to their now 5th Conference Championship game, but in his 3 losses in those games he has 1-5 TD-INT ratio, going a combined 54-101 for 514 yards, a 54% completion % and a an awful 51. YPA. In other words, he wasn't invoking many memories of Joe Montana and Bart Starr. The one Super Bowl he did play in, he threw 3 INT's had a 74 QB rating and a 1 Major Field Throw Up on National TV. Not your exact image of the "Ice Water in your Veins" type QB. He will be facing history, his own legacy and a newly inspired defense that has forced opposing QB's into a combined 7 INT's in two games. Not a good sign for the Eagles. Westbrook, their real X-Factor has not looked the same in recent weeks. Add to that, the Eagles use the blitz more than any NFL squad (actually second most) and they are facing a QB who LOVES going against the blitz (6th best in the NFL). You have a banged up secondary against the best WR in football (Fitzgerald), and possibly the 2nd best if healthy (Boldin) with a re found running game in a pretty well rested Edgerrin James. This a good matchup for the Cards. They have a hot QB, a rejuvenared defense and a running game, all three of which they didnt have in their earlier brow beating given to them by the Eagles.
I liked them last week, I like them this week.

Final Score: Cards 31 Eagles 21

AFC Championship

The Steelers are an interesting squad. They play a power football game, but without the power football tools- at least on the offensive side of the ball. The Steelers defensively are as good and punishing as any in the NFL including their counterpart this week. However, offensively, despite their recent success, are prone to an attacking aggressive type defense. Basically, the Steelers offense gets handled pretty easily by the better defenses. They were beaten pretty soundly against Tennessee, Philly and the Giants, and they had a very tough time offensively in their 2 wins vs. Baltimore. Big Ben has been physically beaten this year, being sacked 46 times plus getting hit hard countless others. The Steelers running game has been non existent this season averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
For all that, Baltimore does even less offensively. They always beat who they should and never beat who they shouldn't (except last week, when Tennessee handed them the game even though they clearly outplayed them). Pittsburgh beat them twice, Tennessee beat them twice and they lost to the Giants and Colts. They feast on mediocre offenses (as evidenced two weeks ago in the Dolphin destruction) and do everything offensively BUT let Flacco beat them. Yes, he has played well in spots, but he's not winning the games for them. It's their defense, which is playing extremely well and Flacco doing enough, not to lose the games for them.
So, as always when you have two similar teams, both with great defenses, you take the "who do you want to have the ball with two minutes left in a 10-10 game" factor, which at least this season favors Big Ben.
As much as I hate to go with the same picks as The Sports Guy and his horrific track record, The People's Champ says:

Pittsburgh 17 Baltimore 7

Kurt Warner- Revisiting the Argument

In September of this year, TPC wrote an argument giving (here)FACTUAL evidence of why Kurt Warner is not only an excellent Quarterback, but why he should also be in the conversation for Hall of Fame, All Time Great Status.

This season only added further to TPC's argument and we will detail the evidence.

Interestingly enough, the Arizona Cardinals is the oldest continuously run football franchise in the United States. They have won two NFL Championships in their 111 year old existence, the last being 1947 (a very similar run that haunted New York Ranger fans and their 1940 chants). From 1947-2007 they won a total of TWO playoff games. They have only qualified for the playoffs 5 times total prior to this year. They are one of six NFL teams to never play in a Super Bowl (in other words, these guys make the Jets look like Giants). What does this have to do with Warner? Everything I say. You see, Warner came into this situation with a rookie franchise QB in the wings (in Leinart), won the job through terrific on the field performance and may have totally transformed the face of the franchise.
In two seasons as the Cardinals starting QB, he has thrown for 8000 yards, a 57-31 TD-INT ratio, roughly 65% completion % and an 95 QB rating.
Again, Warner has won as many playoff games for Arizona this season as they have won in the last 61 years. You want to kill the Manning Boys, Rivers and Delhomme for being eliminated early (and rightfully so in each instance), then you must give Warner the same (if not more) credit for doing the opposite. All he did was win two road games against heavily favored teams, going 40 for 64 for 491 yards, 4 TD's and 2 INT, for a 94 QB rating, including an opening 13-16 for 180 and 2 TD's on the road, against a Carolina Panther team that was 8-0 at home for the season. Compared that to McNabb's 70 QB rating and 2 TD-3INT ratio, and you wonder why everyone is singing the accolades of McNabb but ignoring the ever growing greatness of Warner. Again, he has taken a team to the NFC Championship, a game away from the Super Bowl, who has won a total of TWO playoff games in it's past 61 years.
He's as good a big game QB as there is in the last 25 years that isn't named Brady or Montana. Let's look at the numbers:

• Brady- In 17 playoff games (including 3 Super Bowl Wins and Two MVP trophies) he has a 26-12 TD-INT ratio, 6.6 Yard per Attempt, a 62.5 Completion % and an 88 QB rating. He has a 14-3 record in those games (wow!).
• Montana- In 23 playoff games (including 4 Super Bowl Wins and 3 Super Bowl MVP trophies) he had a 45-21 TD-INT ratio (including an astonishing 11-0 ratio in the Super Bowl), 7.9 YPA, 63.3 Completion % and a 96 QB rating, with a 16-7 record in those games. He also threw the most famous pass of All Time (The Catch) until last seasons miracle Manning to Tyree play.
• Elway- In 22 career playoff games (including 2 Super Bowl wins and one MVP) he had a 27-21 TD-INT ratio, 7.6 YPA, 54.6 Completion % and a 79.8 QB rating. He also ran for another 460 yards and 6 TD's a very important stat when discussing Elways value. He is 14-8 in those 22 games.
• Bradshaw- 19 games played (4 Super Bowl Wins and 2 MVP's), a 30-26 TD-INT ratio, 8.4 YPA (an astounding number), 57% Completion % and an 83 QB rating. Bradshaw was 14-5 in his playoff games.
• Favre- 22 games played (including 1 Super Bowl win and 1 MVP), he has a 39-28 TD-INT ratio. 7.4 YPA, 60.7% Completion% and an 85 QB rating. Interestingly, until Warner destroyed him in a 2002 divisional playoff game 45-17, you can make a case Favre was as good as anyone in the playoffs to that point with a 25-12 TD-INT ratio. He has a 12-10 record in his 22 playoff games.
• Warner- 9 games played (including one Super Bowl win and 1 MVP), Warner has a 19-12 TD-INT ratio, 8.2 YPA, 63% Completion % and an 92.6 QB rating. He's 7-2 in those 9 games.
• Aikman- In 16 games played (3 Super Bowl wins and 1 MVP), he has a 24-17 TD-INT ratio, 7.7 YPA, 63.7% Completion% and an 89 QB rating. He is 11-5 in those games.

McNabb, Young and Marino's numbers all fall short of the above list. Every guy above listed is a clear, first ballot hall of famer. Warner's regular season success as well as playoff success is on par with this group- statistically and proven in big games (only Montana has taken a second team into the playoffs of the above group, and one which was much better with a greater history that the Cardinals and didn't get as far as Warner did this season. In defense to the other great ones, only he and Favre have even had the shot with other squads).

Giant Defeat- TPC Reveals the Real Reasons the Champs are Out

We watched the game. We heard all the pundits and talking heads. It was Eli's fault. It was Coughlin's fault. Spagnola's fault. Well, The People's Champ is going to break it down reason by reason.

1- Eli played awful. From the opening play, a great play design to free Steve Smith on a route that left him wide open, nothing between him and the End Zone. Eli threw just an ugly looking ball that under threw Smith that portended things to come. Whatever you want to say about the play calling, whatever you want to say about the defense taking the "gas of the pedal", if Eli makes that throw, the Giants go up 7-0 against a very shaky Philly offense, as indicated in the first half.
Eli's numbers were: 15-29 169 yards 2 INT's and a 40.7 QB rating. Although he had a statistically worse game in 2005 against the Panthers in the NFC Wild Card game (10-18 113 yards 3 INT's 35 QB rating), I contend when you take everything into consideration- his stature, the team, situation, experience- this was his worst game in his NFL career. This was a game the Eagles game plan was simple- "Eli, go ahead and beat us". Besides a brilliant 3rd down throw late in the game to Dominic Hixon and some nice crossing patterns with Boss, Eli was off all day and it validated the Eagles game plan.
Some have indicated (especially the Ducks- my long time nemesis) that Eli's lack of arm strength kills him late in the season in the cold and blustery winds of Giants Stadium. To date, statistically these critics are 100% on the ball, as Eli has been brilliant in his road playoff games (evidenced by last years Super Bowl MVP run) and his total incompetence in his two career home playoff games. His home December numbers are much worse than his road numbers during the same time period (although this year he showed much improvement at home in December, except this week-when it really mattered). Ignoring the fact that TPC has no evidence or case to base this on, I believe Eli will rebound and show he can win and lead this team to home playoff wins.

2- "Prevent Defense" to end the first half that gave the Eagles a Field Goal, the lead and their first sustainable offense. The Giants dominated the first half on both sides of the ball, despite Eli's putrid performance. The Eagles only score was the result of Eli's interception, that set up a Donovan McNabb QB sneak. To this point, the Eagles had 10 yards in total offense, plus a Giant safety. So what did the great wizardry of Spagnola and Coughlin's genius do? They took the pressure and heat off McNabb (which to that point produced a safety an INT and 10 total offensive yards), allowed him to breath and work underneath and gave the Eagles some life. Again, to that point the Giants were moving the ball on offense (except the INT, they controlled the line of scrimmage) totally dominated with their defense and even their special teams played great. That offensive possession gave the Eagles a lot more than 3 points and a halftime lead. it gave them life and it got McNabb back in some sort of rhythm. He did nothing to that point. This was the classic case of "don't let these guys stay in the game because they will think they can win it" game. To that point, if you looked at the Eagles bench, they were done. Why the great Spagnola (and I mean that in all seriousness) decided to call off the horses on that last drive is beyond understanding. It is also probably why (good news for Giant fans) Spags will be back in NY next year while Ryan will become the next Jets coach.

3- The offensive game plan- Anyone who has watched the Giants the last two years KNOWS the offense starts with Brandon Jacobs and the beating he gives the opposing defenses. I'm as big a supporter as one can be for Eli Manning, even I admit the offense starts with Jacobs. The success of Bradshaw and Ward is directly attributed to the pounding that Jacobs delivers to the defense. Yes, the fact that you landed on Boardwalk with 4 houses knocked you out of the game, but landing on New York Avenue and Marvin Gardens 3 or 4 times prior, is what led to your bank account getting to the point where Boardwalk can bankrupt you. So what do the Giants do? They split carries with Ward and Jacobs when Jacobs was abusing the Philadelphia defense when Ward was struggling to gain 2 or 3 yards. Jacobs has abused Philly every time they play. They are a defensive line that is susceptible to a power running attack and the Giants decided to bounce Jacobs to the outside and have Ward pound it to the inside. Just doesn't make sense. With all the criticism on Coughlin for his 3rd and 4th down play calling (I believe at the time he had no confidence in Eli at that point and was gripping at straws) this was his biggest mistake on the offensive side of the ball. If your the Giants, you have to pound Jacobs inside all day, until Philly can prove they can stop him. This would have worn down the Philly defense and allowed a shaky Eli (who actually looked decent in the 2nd Quarter) to settle in and not have to do too much in very tough conditions (for all the McNabb raving I have heard today, the guy played awful except for two drives and his safety and two picks could have cost him as much as Eli cost the Giants. Only difference was Samuel's got closer to the goal line than Robbins on the INT).

With two minutes left in the first half, I texted my friend and told him the Giants will dominate in the second half and Jacobs and Co. will wear the defense down. After the Eagles drove the field to the end the half, I said "I think the Giants might have just given these guys a new lease on life". Unfortunately, for the Giants- I was right.
With that being said, I think the best team on the field yesterday was the Giants. I felt they dominated the first half, but some key coaching decisions and the total ineffectiveness of Eli, allowed the Eagles to hang around long enough for McNabb to make a few plays and sometimes that's all you need.

A look back at TPC's NFL and Fantasy Predictions

One of the main reasons I started this blog was so I would have some accountability of my usually outlandish predictions.
For a full list of my preseason picks you can go to The People's Draft Review, The Fearless Forecast, and Week 1's review.

Without further ado, a look back with a special tribute- Mike and the Mad Dog Style:

"The J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS will make the playoffs and Brett Favre will finish in the top 5 of the league MVP voting"
That's an awful job Mikey. Awful, awful job. No excuse for that.........
Hey Dog, when they beat Tennessee and NE a few backs back, you weren't sayin' the same thing. You were cringin everytime Baningo walked through that door.

"Michael Westbrook will finally break down this season. So will Jamal Lewis."
You gotta give credit where it's do Mikey. TPC was right on the ball.......
Your right Dog. Westbrook had a nice season but still was banged up all year and had 700 fewer yards than last season with a much worse yards per carry and Lewis was a non factor on a just Putrid Cleveland football team.
"Eli, excuse me, ELI MANNING-SUPERBOWL XLII MVP will continue to grow and flourish in an offense that returns all 11 of it's starters from it's SUPER BOWL XLII victory."
You know Mikey, I'm sick of Eli this and Eli that. Enough of the Eli stuff already.
Hey Dog, the guy won the Super Bowl MVP against an unbeat-a-ble Patriots team. He led the Giants to the NFC's top seed despite losing his #1 Wide Receiver and his #1 Running back for large parts of the season. He had his best statistical year throwing a career low 10INT's his best QB rating ever, 21 TD's and his best yards per attempt ever. And Dog get this, in late and close games he had an astonishing 132.6 QB rating in 7 games with 4 TD's and 0 int's. You can make a veerrrrrrry good case, he's the best clutch QB in the game right now.

"Derek Anderson will be a huge disappointment this season and make the Browns regret paying him and last years #1 pick, Brady Quinn."
Not much to be said about that one Dog, except the kid was right on the money again.

"Chris Johnson will be a stud. This season. Bye Bye Lendale".
Well, Dog, he was right on about CJ. He's probably the most dynamic back inthe game right now behind Peterson and White pretty much just cleaned up his garbage.
Mikey--Are you crAYzy! Johnson had a great year. A GREAT year, but White had 15 TD's. FIFTEEN MIKEY.
Dog, he had a paltry 3.9 YPC compared to Johnsons 4.9. He was just fortunate to pick up Johnsons trash.
Hey Scuzari, get Sirius back on the phone here. This is why I left the FAN in the first place!
"Reggie Bush will have a big year. So will his QB Drew Brees."
Um, hmmmm....

"Michael Turner will flourish as a starting RB, something along the lines of 1300 yards rushing and 12 TD's+."

Mikey, here's what a reader- YaHooa's wrote to TPC after week 3:
"I still think Michael Turner is a joke, the season is still young and I will be proven right."
TPC was right on the money. People were killing him on the boards Mikey.
Yeah, Dog if anything he undersold Turner who had a HUUUUUUUUUUga year.
"Kurt Warner will continue his recent success and lead Arizona to a playoff spot."
And some MVP consideration along the way, Dog.

The Steelers will not be as good as most think. Nor will the Vikings. The Steelers will still win their crappy division.
Mikey, he missed on this one. Both teams won their divisions and for crying out loud Mikey, The Steelers finished 12-4. TWELVE and Four.
Yeah Dog, but lets look at it a little closer. Against playoff teams. Playoff teams Dog, the Steelers lost to the Giants. They got manhandled by the Eagles. The Titans just ate them up with home field throughout on the line. Manning and Dungy beat them in Pittsburgh. Take away Baltimore and the 8-8 Chawgews and the Steelers didnt beat anyone. They look very beatable to me going into January.

The Raiders wont be as bad. JaMarcus will show flashes of greatness. As will RunDMC. Did I say Brandon Marshall will be huge this year? So will Calvin Johnson. Pennington will show he has something left in the tank. So will Ricky. Galloway wont. Neither will Marvelous Marvin Harrison

The Raiders were better than last year and Russel did show signs but TPC was off here. If they can keep McFadden on the field, he's a star.
I cant wait to see what Johnson will be like with a coach next year Mikey. That guy is unbelievable. If he was playing in Green Bay, they would call him Brett Favre HAHAHHHAHAHAH, oooooooooooooooh baby.
"Marion Barber will not be worthy of the #6-#9 draft position he most frequently went."
Dog, here what separates TPC from all the other guys out there. Here's how he explained his reasoning for that prediction.
"Barber is a very good back. He was utilized perfectly in the Dallas system, but now that he is the featured back I think he takes to many upright hits and wont be able to take the constant punishment." and here "Marion Barber will now need to shoulder the whole load and if he was so great, why did Dallas take Felix Jones with their #1 pick?".
And Dog, just for good measure here's how the Ducks, TPC's long standing rival answered.
Marion Barber didn't have great #s the past 2 years? I can't answer why the cowboys took jones, teams do dumb things sometimes. and the cowboys have been dumb often lately (i.e., wade phillips, pacman jones) but that has nothing to do with barber who will be the FT rb. he avged 4.8 ypc the past 2 season, tends to have one huge run every game and if you watch him (i am a giants nfc-east guy, so i do) you see more than even just those stats. i'm telling you, he looks like barry sanders to me. he won't be good, he will be GREAT.
See Dog, TPC sees beyond the numbers. He gets the game.

"Carson Palmer will once again disappoint."
No one saw that coming Mikey.

"Devin Hester will be electric as a WR for da Bears."
Ya know Dog, TPC took a lot of heat for this prediction, but at the end of the day, he wasnt far off. he led the Bears in receiving yards by a lot (665 yards0 and he missed the better part of 5 games. Not the greatest TPC prediction, but far from awful.

"Division Winners
Pats, Steelers, Jags and Chargers in the AFC
Cowboys, Pack, Saints and Cardinal in the NFC
Wild Cards
Jets and Colts in the AFC
Giants and 'Skins in the NFC"

Mikey, we'll give a pass on the Pats. The Jags were just awful Mikey. AW-FUL. TPC didnt even show up in the NFC except the Cards.
Your Dog, just a crazy, crazy NFL season and even the great TPC had a tough time figuring it all out.

NFL Regular Season Closing Thoughts

It was only fitting that the final regular season game of the 2008 season carried with it a "win or go home" finish. It was also fitting that a team which won it's last 4 games (the 8-8 San Diego Chargers won the division from a team who had the reverse finish, 3 straight losses, when just one win would have clinched the division for them. This season was one which featured three major late season collapses (Jets, Bucs and Broncos) and some great late season surges (Eagles, Chargers, Colts and Falcons). We had the first 0-16 team in NFL History (the Lions) and team that went 11-5 (Pats) that missed the postseason so the 8-8 Chargers could get in- and win a division nonetheless.

The Jets will fire Mangini early today as ESPN has been reporting and rightfully so. Normally a team that goes from 4-12 to 9-7 would be considered a success, but not this season. Just 4 weeks ago the Jets were thinking Super Bowl after defeating the Titans and Patriots, but now are left sitting at home wondering who is to blame for their great demise. First and foremost the coaching staff has to take the brunt of the fall. A team that went out and beat the Titans and Pats all of a sudden played a "not to lose" type strategy that lost them 3 of the seasons final four games, and only a miracle play kept them from being 8-8. They refused to run the ball down the Broncos throat, a team that can't even think about stopping the run. They came out flat against San Fran and Seattle, two teams that finished a combined 11-21 (although to be fair the '9ers showed a lot of heart and promise down the stretch under Mike Singletary). The next one to blame has to be Brett Favre, someone who was probably the leading candidate for MVP consideration just 5 weeks ago. Someone who made some of the worst decisions you will ever see on a football field by a pro football Quarterback (let alone someone who will be enshrined in Canton), as evidenced by his 2 TD 9 INT final 4 game finish. I don't care what the MRI shows to his arm, unless they do one on his brain and pinpoint exactly what he was thinking with some of those throws.
The Bucs had a similar collapse, although they did have a much tougher schedule losing to NFC top seed Carolina, 11-5 Atlanta, San Diego and a Raider team that showed signs of life late. Not in the same category as what the Broncos or Jets did, but still a collapse nonetheless. 9-3 teams should not finish 9-7, I don't care who you are playing.
The Broncos are led by two of the most overrated people at their respected positions. Mike Shanahan who has done nothing, NOTHING as a head coach without John Elway and Terrel Davis and Jay Cutler, who has an arm like a young Favre and brain like the older version. Seriously, take away the Elway years and what has Shanahan done? He hasn't built a running game since Portis left (he actually believed all the nonsense that people wrote about him and how it's the system and not the players. Well, it's about the players. System helps only if you have the horses). He hasn't ever built a decent defense, especially against the run.
Cutler is all flash and no substance. He has probably the best "toolset" of any NFL QB, and watching him play shows you why NFL scouts were so high on this guy. He has a great arm. great mobility. Sees the whole field, but when push comes to shove and things tighten up, he always makes the wrong decision (the red zone Interception at the beginning of the second quarter was the turning point of the game yesterday). I wouldn't give up on him (his skillset is way too high) but he needs to show better judgement or every bronco season will end in similar fashion.
Perhaps nothing gave The People's Champ more pleasure than watching the Dallas Cowboys get utterly destroyed by the Eagles yesterday, closing out any chance they had of making the playoffs. Tony Romo, for all his Sept-Nov brilliance has proven to be a complete and utter failure in December and January (5-10 in December and Jan for his career). With all the talent they have, Wade Phillips must go (unless you like relish in the Cowboys failures and therefore hope Jerry Jones grants him that 8 year extension). It's time to get rid of the ultimate locker room cancer in Terrel Owens. Team needs to be remade.
On the positive side, the Eagles stepped up big time yesterday (and down the stretch) and brought it to another reeling franchise (the Cowboys), claiming their playoff birth. The Eagles finished the season winning 4 of their last 5 games to get into the playoffs with McNabb playing some of the best ball of his career. The Eagles also have an aggressive attacking defense that can give fits to any team, and if Andy Reid weren't still the head coach, I would say they could upset the Giants in the NFC. Won't happen. Still a great job all around.
Not enough can be said about the job Tony Sparano, Bill Parcells and Chad Pennington did with the Dolphins, transforming the 1-15 doormats to 11-5 AFC East Champs. What a great job all around. Chad has to be given serious MVP consideration in the job he did. Sparano is on the short list of Coach of the Year candidates. Just a tremendous job.
Matt Cassel and Bill Belichek deserve kudos as well, let's just not go overboard. All they did was take a team that went 16-0 and go 11-5 with a much easier schedule. Yes, a good job without the Great Brady, but lets not go overboard here. They still had the same squad that went 16-0 last year and were unbeatable until the Giants upset them in the SB. When you read some of the nonsense being spewed about them, you think they were the ones that took over a 1-15 squad. Bottom line, if Brady were healthy, with that schedule, the Pats would have been a lot closer to 16-0 than to 11-5.
And what about the Falcons? All they did was beat Carolina, Tampa, San Diego and Minnesota down the stretch to get into the playoffs after a 4-12 2007 season. Less than a year removed from the Michael Vick fiasco, Matty "Ice" Ryan had as good a rookie QB season as there has been since the great Marino debut, 25 years ago. He will garner MVP consideration and Mike Smith deserves serious consideration for Coach of the Year honors.
We will get into the playoff thoughts later in the week, but here are my season ending awards:

AFC MVP- Chad Pennington. The QB is always the one who takes most of the blame (see Favre, Romo, etc) he must also get the credit where the credit is due and no one meant more to his team than Chad to the Dolphins. Honorable mentions: James Harrison, Peyton Manning and Albert Haynesworth.
Coach of the Year- Tony Sparano. Honorable Mention: John Harbaugh and Tony Dungy. Let's not discount the job Dungy did, holding the Colts together through all the injuries and getting them back on track to where some say they are the team to beat in the AFC.
Rookie of the Year- Chris Johnson. He's the most dynamic back in the game not named Adrian Peterson. Honorable mention: Joe Flacco (if there was no Matt Ryan we would have heard a lot more about this guy) Eddie Royal and Steve Slaton.
Most disappointing player: Crazy as this may have seemed in Week 11, Brett Favre. Derek Anderson also gets consideration.

NFC MVP- This was a much tougher choice than the AFC. You have Brandon Jacobs and Eli Manning from the Giants, both indispensable pieces to one of the leagues best all around offenses, you have Kurt Warner. You can make a great case for Matt Ryan and Brian Westbrook, but for my money, the 2008 NFC MVP is All Day Adrian Peterson. You take that guy away from the Viking offense, and HE IS the Vikings offense, they go 6-10 at best instead of the 10-6 division Champs they are.
Coach of the Year- Mike Smith. Honorable mention: John Fox.
Rookie of the Year- Matt Ryan. Honorable mention: Matt Forte and Dejean Jackson.
Most Disappointing player: Marc Bulger.

Week 15 NFL Fantasy Preview

Tampa at Atlanta 1PM EST

Tampa's defensive got blasted last week by an extremely impressive Carolina running game. I don't expect the same results this week, but Turner is a must start. Ryan is not a must start and if you have better options, I would use them. Roddy White as always is a must.
Garcia has been playing pretty well and he should be considered, whereas Antonio Bryant is a must start and Dunn could be used as a back end RB #2 or a flex starter. I would also start Tampa's D as they have owned Atlanta in their last 3 meetings.
Washington at Cincinnati 1PM EST
The Redskins, despite their recent struggles, have a few high end ranking plays this week.
Their D, Portis and Cooley are all top 5 at their respective positions this week. Santana Moss is a good WR #2 play and you can even consider Campbell if you don't have a better alternative.
Cincy has been so awful lately, I would only consider TJ and possibly Ocho Cinco. Benson is a desperate flex player this week. Redskins should get back on track in a big way.
Tennesse at Houston 1PM EST

A very intriguing matchup, the AFC's best D against the AFC's 2nd best offense.
Houston plays well with Schaub at the helm and although Tenn. has one of the top pass defenses (currently #3) Schaub is still a play and Andre Johnson is a must play. You also have to start Slaton, but I wouldn't expect a huge game. Walters should only be considered as a WR #3 and Daniels only if you don't have a better option at TE (which you probably don't).
You have to start both White and Johnson, both should have big days against a very poor Houston run D (9th worst in the league). Only other offensive player worth starting is Scaife and if you have really no choice (which I don't see how) you can play Collins.
Detroit at Indy 1PM EST

Peyton Manning owners, start your engines! Manning is the #1 QB play this season and despite the inconsistent seasons of Addai, Wayne and Clark, all are a must go against one of the worst teams in recent NFL history (KEEP IN MIND-AS OF THIS WRITING ADDAI IS VERY QUESTIONABLE. IF HE'S OUT, RHODES BECOMES A MUST START). Gonzalez is also a start as a WR#2/3 and the Colts D, which has been playing very well since Sanders came back are a top 3 option.
The only Lion that should see a fantasy roster is Calvin Johnson.

Green Bay at Jacksonville 1PM EST

A game between two predicted Super Bowl contenders has lost any luster except to fantasy players. Both defenses have played poorly and have underachieved which presents this as a great fantasy matchup.
Rodgers is a great start as always. Grant is a must start, as is Jennings and even Driver.
With the season ending injury to Fred Taylor, MJ Drew becomes a top 5 fantasy back. With Matt Jones out the rest of the way, Reggie Williams becomes a decent WR #2/3 option. Jerry Porter looks like he's very questionable at this point to play.

San Diego at KC 1PM EST

The NFL's most disappointing team gets a chance at some redemption this week- at least for fantasy owners. Phillip Rivers is the #2 play behind Manning and should see a better day than the one a few weeks ago, where the Chargers barely survived a 20-19 win at home vs. the lowly Chiefs. LT is a must start despite his seasons struggles. Jackson and Gates are also must starts.
For K.C., Thigpen is a top 12 QB option this week (as he has been). Gonzalez and Bowe are must starts and LJ is a good #2 RB against a very suspect Chargers D.

San Francisco at Miami 1PM EST

Amazingly, the Dolphins control their own destiny for the AFC East Crown. If they win out, they win the East. This after a 1-15 season! Incredible job by Tony Sparano who should be coach of the decade for this performance.
With that being said, Mike Singeltary has turned around the 49ers since taking over, with 3 wins in their last 4 games, including wins against the Dolphins AFC rivals, the Jets and Bills.
SF's D has been playing well as of late, therefore don't go crazy with the Dolphins. Brown is a decent RB #2 option and I would consider Chad as a starter, only if your left with no better options. However, I would consider Davone Bess as a WR #2/#3 option especially in PPR leagues. He has 20 receptions in his last 3 contests.
On the 49ers side of the ball, Hill is a decent option at QB. Gore is very questionable as of Friday AM, so you need to consider other options. If Foster starts I wouldn't give him more than Flex credit. Bruce is a good #2/3 WR this week as well.
Bills at Jets 1PM EST

Just 2 weeks ago the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS were making Super Bowl plans and now they are tied with NE and Miami with the worst schedule of the 3 down the stretch. What should we expect?
I think the Jets turn it around right here against a reeling Bills team. Thomas Jones who is quietly having a monster season (1300+ yards and 14 TD's) is a must start. This is the game the Jets got Favre for, and it says here, he delivers and delivers big. Start him. Also start Cocthery and Coles as WR 2/3's and Keller. I think the Jet offense is in for a big day. I would also start the Jets D. Their achilles has been their pass d, but I don't see this Bills team hurting them. If you have Lynch, you have to start him but I don't expect much more than a decent Flex position type return.

Seattle at St. Louis 1PM EST

What a matchup! Two 2-11 teams going head to head in week 15, what else could you ask for? Seattle sports fans, we feel for you. Seriously, how bad can one city have it? As ESPN's Sports Guy has written over and over, they have the worst situation of any city in professional sports right now. Well, at least for one week they get the lowly Rams.
The truth is, I don't know who to start in this one. Both defenses are awful, but the offenses aren't much better. I guess you have to go with Bulger, Holt, Avery and Jackson. On the Seattle side, Branch and Morris are decent plays and Carlsson is a top 5 TE start. Good luck if you have to watch this one. You might want to start drinking NOW.

Arizona at Minnesota 4PM EST

Another very good matchup with serious playoff implications. With Chicago's win last night and their easier schedule, Minny needs to keep pace to win the division. The Cards already clinched their division but they are playing for positioning.
As always, All Day AP is a top 3 RB play. The QB position is still up in the air, but I would consider Berrian as WR #3.
As always, the Cards are matchup proof and you start Warner, Boldin and Fitzgerald. Breaston can be used as WR#2 as well. They will all produce.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore 4PM EST

The defensive matchup of the week, possibly even the season. Start both defenses as always.
Only offensive player I would even consider is FWP, although Santonio Holmes has 4 TD's in his last 3 games vs. the Ravens. He's worth a shot as a WR#3.

Denver at Carolina 4PM EST

Another good fantasy matchup. Both teams assure themselves of a playoff birth with a win, so much to play for.
Carolina's defense has been underwhelming the last few weeks and they get a real tough test with this Denver passing offense. However, the Denver offense has been less than stellar when they don't have a running game, and with Hillis out for the season, this puts it all on Cutlers shoulders. What does this mean? Good fantasy numbers for Cutler, Marshall, Schefler and Royal, but I think Carolina comes away with a win, with Denver playing catchup most of the day.
Add to that the fact that the Carolina running game has been on fire, led by the hottest fantasy back in the game Deangelo Williams, Denvers defense is in for a long game. Obviously, Williams is a top 5 start, Stewart is a must as a RB #2. Steve Smith is a must start as always and you could do worse than Delhomme this week, although Williams and Stewart will eat up the scoring.

New England at Oakland 4PM EST

I can't get the Raiders right this season. One week they play hard, next week they dont show up. Every week, they are still a very subpar football team.
Cassel is a top 10 play this week. Moss and Welker are usual starts. You could do worse than Sammy Morris as a RB #2 and Faulk as a Flex player. I also love the NE Defense this Sunday.
Oakland? If you own any of them besides Miller- a good start as a TE (and if you do, you're season is over and you probably aren't reading this anyway) leave them on the bench, unless you're desperate for a RB/ Flex, then go with Fargas. If your league counts poor QB play as a plus, JaMarcus is your man!

New York Giants at Dallas 8:15PM EST

In the featured matchup of the week, the Giants look to take a step closer to clinching home field throughout while the Cowboys hold on for dear playoff life. With all this going on, Terrel Owens decides to go into self destructive mode and criticize Romo for favoring Witten. Not a good thing to do especially with the Giants coming off that loss last week. It says here, hide the Dallas women and children, the Giants will be taking no prisoners this week. Only thing that can help Dallas is if Brandon Jacobs does not play Sunday.
For fantasy purposes, you can start Eli as a low 1st/ high 2nd option. I would start Ward if Jacobs cant go and Boss. I would play the Giants D.
You always have to start TO, Romo, and Witten. I would even consider Choice if Barber can't go.

Cleveland at Philadelphia Monday 8:30 PM EST

Cleveland has looked horrendous in recent weeks, while Philly is surging, trying to claim the last NFC wild card spot. Cleveland has scored a combined 21 points their last 3 weeks and it wont get easier here. Bench all Browns. Right now. Don't even make a mistake of over sleeping between now and Sunday. Just get them the heck out of your lineup. I almost feel bad for Dorsey this week- although not to bad as I start the Eagles D! Obviously, the Eagles D is a great play.
McNabb, Westbrook and Desean Jackson are great plays. This will be a romp and this could be one of those 3-4 TD type games for Westbrook.

Good luck to all those still in their playoffs!

Week 14 Fantasy Football Outlook- The Playoff Stretch

As we head down the stretch, many leagues are now starting their fantasy football playoffs. In TPC's head to head league, TPC has been officially eliminated and will not defend his 2007 fantasy crown. However, all is not lost in TPCville as The People's League enters the final 4 weeks of the season with TPC second to Plain Dan in his quest for Fantasy Glory.
Here are my week 13 thoughts and predictions:
The Raiders will keep it close tonight, but in the end LT should be too much for the inept Raiders run defense. Also, I'm not so sure Rivers will have his typical monster game. The Raiders defend the pass reasonably well.
I love Forte against Jax. He's a stud pick this week.
I don't like any Jags at all.
AP is the start of the week against the inept Lions and wouldn't be surprised to see him go for 200+. There isn't a player in the NFL more fun to watch than Mr. All Day.
I would also start Taylor if you have a flex position available. I think 75 yards and TD is well within his reach.
The Vikings D is also a solid play.
I like all the Packers main skill guys against the shoddy Texan D and I love Slaton against the porous Packers run defense. GB usually plays well against the pass, so I would only consider Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels here. Other plays are weak. They do get slightly upgraded if Schaub is playing. He also makes Daniels a much better option.
All Colts, as usual, are a go, including their D against Cincy. Manning and Co. are starting to really click and this week will be no exception.
I love Brees, Colston, Shockey, and Moore for New Orleans and Ryan, Turner and White for Atlana. Should be a shootout of a game.
As always, you need to start Westbrook, but I wouldn't go with any other Eagles unless you have to (unless you start Jackson as a WR #3). Jacobs, Boss and Toomer are all good plays (Toomer only as WR 3). I don't think you're going to see the scoring like the last time these two squads went head to head (NY winning 36-31). I would play Eli over McNabb as the Eagles will focus on stopping the run after the Giants pounded 219 rushing yards against them last meeting.
Quick Eli numbers: In 3 games without Plax he has completed 71% of his passes for 812 yards, 6 Td's and 1 INT, going 3-0 in those games. In other words, Giants will be just fine without Plax.
You can feel comfortable starting Johnson and White and the Tennessee D is the #1 defensive play this week against the Dorsey led Browns. This game will be over quickly and I wouldn't go near any Cleveland players this week.
I'm not sure which Buffalo team will show up this week, but their only must play is Lynch. Miami lucks out playing indoors in Toronto, rather than outside in Buffalo, therefore Pennington becomes a legit starter. As always, Brown is a start. I would consider Miami's D against Losman as well.
Cutler is the #1 QB play this week vs. KC. Hillis is a strong start. Brandon Marshall, Scheffler and Royal are all must plays. The will avenge their week 5 loss in a big way at home and take full control of the AFC West.
Thigpen is a good start as always. Larry Johnson is a great start. He ran for 198 yards in their last meeting. Bowe and Gonzalez are also stud plays for KC.
Start the Jets D. They will respond big time against SF. Jones is a great play. I would consider Favre if you don't have a clear better play. Cotchery and Coles are decent WR 2 and 3 options. Keller has become a must start each week.
You have to start Gore, but I think he's in for a long day against an angry Jets D.
Cassel should have a better game this week than last against a poor Seahawks D. I like the Pats D. Obviously, Moss and Welker are must starts. You could also get away with Morris as a RB #2 this week. I wouldn't start any Seahawks. There in for a long day after the whooping the Steelers put on the Pats last week.
Play all your Cards, as in the Arizona Cardinals. Warner is the #2 QB play this week. Boldin, Fitzgerald and Breaston are all good plays. Even Hightower is a good play. I would even consider the usually inept Arizona D here.
Only play for the Rams is Stephen Jackson. You can play Holt and Avery as WR 3's, but i wouldn't expect much out of either. Gun to my head, Avery is the better of the two this week.
In the Marquee matchup of the week, you got to start Big Ben, FWP, Holmes and Ward. I'm not sold on the Dallas D at all. You also have to play Barber, Romo, Wittin and TO (as you do every week), but I see Pitt winning this one 21-10 or something along those lines. I have no faith in Dallas in a physical matchup and the Steelers are the epitome of a physical D.
Stay away from all Redskins except Portis. I like Baltimore's D and Campbell hasn't shown much against a good D to date. Flacos is a decent play. I wouldn't start any of the Ravens RB. Mason is a good play especially in PPR leagues.
In the Monday night showdown featuring the NFC South's top two squads, I would feel very comfortable starting the Bucs D, Garcia and Dunn. Only Panther I would start is Steve Smith. They will show they are the worst 9-3 team in the game this week.

Good luck to all you still in the playoffs.